Fact or Fiction: "Zelenskyy is Very Unpopular"
Research revisited
I originally published this research in June 2024. At that time, it was about Zelenskyy’s popularity (or alleged lack thereof) prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion. Now Zelenskyy’s current popularity has come into question. I’ve gone back through the data and added more source material. What follows is an edited version of last year’s post with an updated analysis of Zelenskyy’s ratings over time.
An allegation that I’ve seen over and over again since February 2022 is that Zelenskyy was extremely unpopular prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion. “His ratings were dogshit,” declared one online commenter. The claim is often connected with similar statements disparaging Zelenskyy’s leadership. Since many of the vitriolic criticisms about Zelenskyy tend to be misleading, I wondered if this one might be, as well. I chose to concentrate on poll numbers because they are a common and concrete source.
A quick note about polls
Remarks about Zelenskyy’s poll numbers are generally always referred to as his approval rating, but there are several different types of ratings used in Ukrainian surveys. The numbers do not always mean the same thing.
Some surveys (though not as common as in the U.S.) do ask about approval:
Наскільки Ви схвалюєте чи не схвалюєте діяльність Президента України Володимира Зеленського?
To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the activities of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
A few ask about general perceptions:
Як ви в цілому ставитеся до цього політика – позитивно, негативно чи нейтрально?
In general, what is your opinion of this politician – positive, negative or neutral?
Other surveys reflect electoral support:
Якби вибори Президента України відбувалися наступної неділі, за кого Ви би віддали свій голос?
If the presidential elections in Ukraine were held next Sunday, who would you vote for?
However, the most reliable indicator of popular sentiment over time, asked more consistently than anything else, is about trust:
Наскільки Ви довіряєте чи не довіряєте наступним українським публічним діячам?
To what extent do you trust or distrust the following Ukrainian public figures?
I have looked at a wide range of over 200 different surveys from various organizations to get a sense of broad, overall trends. Certain types of polls, like electoral support, are highly subjective depending on who else is on the list, and sociologists are careful to mention that direct comparisons are only possible between two identical lists. Another important thing to think about is the source of the survey — as in, who paid for it. Any client can commission research and influence the questions that are asked. Some sociological companies are linked to political groups, both domestic and otherwise.
The methodology used can also affect the results. Sociologists explain, for example, that the people who will respond to a phone interview may not be the same as those who participate in face-to-face interviews. Some surveys are conducted entirely online and therefore may exclude certain parts of the population who can’t or don’t access the internet.
Leading up to the election
Zelenskyy started regularly showing up in voter opinion polls in 2018, over half a year before he announced his candidacy for president. Towards the end of that year, he began to surpass the other poll leaders. In a hypothetical second round, he often won against his opponents. From early 2019 until the first round of voting, Zelenskyy frequently led in the ratings with an average of about 24% electoral support. This number may seem low, but potential voters are given a list of as many as 20 or more different choices, so “the rating of a particular candidate depends on how many candidates from the same electoral field are on the list - the more there are, the lower the rating of each candidate.” In this situation, the percentages are much more spread out than a typical U.S. voter poll, which usually has less options.
The first round of the 2019 presidential election took place on March 31st. Out of a record 39 candidates, Zelenskyy received the most votes, which only amounted to 30.24% of nearly 19 million voters. He qualified for the second round along with incumbent Petro Poroshenko, who was in second place with 15.95%. A vast majority of Ukrainians were unsatisfied with Poroshenko and saw Zelenskyy as a much-needed new face in politics. In April, before the second round, 41% of voters said that they would vote more against Poroshenko than for Zelenskyy. This is a probable factor in Zelenskyy’s extraordinary 73.2% second round win on April 21st.
No other Ukrainian president had ever won by such a high margin. Zelenskyy was also able to take advantage of the polarity between his main opponents: Poroshenko, who was mostly supported in the west, and Yuriy Boyko, who was mostly supported in the east. Zelenskyy offered a palatable centrist choice. Political strategists warned however that, since the electorate covers a wide spectrum, “everyone will be dissatisfied with [Zelenskyy] in their own way,” and such a high rating “can fall like an avalanche.”
First years of presidency
After being inaugurated on May 20, 2019, Zelenskyy maintained uncommonly good ratings throughout the rest of the year. He demonstrated a willingness to institute reforms right away, and positive feelings about him peaked in July at a high of 76%. In September 2019, about four months after his inauguration, polls showed that 71% of Ukrainians were satisfied with his actions as president and an average of 78.4% of respondents trusted him.
This was already the highest trust rating of any Ukrainian president, and it was the first time a majority of Ukrainians had been satisfied with their president since November 2014. By the end of 2019, satisfaction was at 62% and trust was at 67%. Despite the slight decline, Zelenskyy was the most trusted politician by far (the next most trusted politician only had a rating of 28%) and the only one with a positive trust-distrust balance.
For the first half of 2020, Zelenskyy’s trust rating stayed above 50% and his approval rating had a steady positive balance. The COVID-19 pandemic was in full swing by March of that year, slowing down reforms and necessitating a change in priorities. A year after his inauguration, Zelenskyy averaged 57% trust and 44% approval of his statements and actions. When asked about Zelenskyy’s first year as president, though, 68% of respondents expressed satisfaction.
Ratings began to decline further that summer as the pandemic wore on and the economy suffered. Average approval was 46% over the course of 2020. Zelenskyy’s average trust rating was down to 45%, but this was still noticeably higher than everyone else who was commonly included in polls.
Trust, however, is not an indicator of voter preferences. Many politicians with low trust ratings are leaders in electoral support. Regardless, Zelenskyy had significantly more average electoral support than his closest competitors in 2020. His highest rating in this category was 45.1% of voters in April 2020 and the lowest was 26.5% in December as people worried about increasing utility tariffs during the heating season.
Electoral support hit a low average of 23.5% during the first part of 2021 – nearly a year into the COVID-19 pandemic – before bouncing back a little after the shutdown of Medvedchuk’s TV channels. At the end of Zelenskyy’s second year as president, his average electoral support was back up to 30.56%, more than he had received when he won the first round of the 2019 election. The deputy director of the Razumkov Center noted that “Volodymyr Zelenskyy is one of the few presidents, perhaps the only one, who has maintained his electoral rating during his two years in power.” In potential head-to-head match ups, Zelenskyy received an average of 67% support, showing that he was still the clear favorite among voters. With a total of 46% trust, he was also rated as the most trusted of all Ukrainian presidents.
During the latter half of 2021, average electoral support reached a high point at nearly 32% but began to decline again to an average of about 24.46% in the fall. There were several alleged scandals being reported by the media and the economy had not improved. Russia was likely attempting to destabilize Ukrainian society as well. As professor Olga Onuch explains in The Zelensky Effect, “the country was experiencing multiple simultaneous crises, and even if none were a product of Zelensky’s actions, he was still the one that people were going to hold accountable.” Still, average numbers for the year show that Zelenskyy continued his lead in overall trust.
One sociologist concluded that, “during this time [Zelenskyy] experienced more than one drop and more than one rise in the rating. In the end, he stabilized at a certain mark, which allows him to remain the most popular Ukrainian politician. This is an unusual trend for Ukraine, because previously the ratings of presidents only fell.” He added that “Ukrainian presidents are not a very high benchmark.”
In addition to claiming that Zelenskyy has been an unpopular president in general, the more specific accusation is that his ratings were particularly low right before the February 2022 attack (insinuating that he only became popular because of the full-scale invasion). All Ukrainian politicians had a negative balance of trust during this time, but Zelenskyy’s rating was trending back upwards, and he had the highest overall level of trust just a week before the invasion. His average electoral support in February 2022 had risen to 25%, which was higher than it had been a year earlier. Zelenskyy also consistently had the most electoral support among voters and had an average lead of 6 points over his closest competitor.
After the full-scale invasion
Shortly after Russia launched their full-scale attack, support for Zelenskyy’s actions jumped to 91%. His trust rating remained above 80% — and sometimes more than 90% — for the rest of 2022. Sociologist Anton Hrushetsky considered this to be an example of rallying around the flag, “the rallying of the population around the leader in very difficult situations, especially during war.” He also described this as “the unity of citizens in critical circumstances.” This was uncharacteristic, even for Zelenskyy, who, as sociologist Oleksiy Antipovich observed, “did not have such indicators even at the peak of trust in him in the fall of 2019.”
The major sociological research organizations had agreed not to publish electoral ratings during the full-scale invasion — to not divide society — but a few surveys with these results began appearing in late 2023. Since elections are prohibited during martial law, any candidate list is strictly speculative. Then Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, had been included in informal Telegram polls since 2022 and later became a regular choice on official national surveys. Zelenskyy still remained the clear leader in electoral support, and his trust rating was over 80% for most of 2023, averaging 69.8% in December.
In 2024, Zelenskyy’s trust rating averaged 56%. “Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the president’s approval rating has been very high and has started to decline, driven by disappointment with the results of the counteroffensive,” said sociologist Volodymyr Paniotto. Amid Russia’s “Maidan-3” campaign (intended to cause chaos in Ukrainian society) as well as a controversial mobilization law, Zelenskyy’s trust rating fell to an average of 47.4% by the end of the year.
Zaluzhnyy had been dismissed from his position on February 8, 2024. Almost immediately, several surveys with ties to Zelenskyy’s opposition were commissioned to include questions regarding Zaluzhnyy’s electoral support. Reflecting the backlash of his controversial dismissal and enjoying the high level of trust associated with the Armed Forces minus any campaign scrutiny, Zaluzhnyy has been seen as a new favorite. Of course, without Zaluzhnyy on the potential candidate list, Zelenskyy continues to have the most support.
Zelenskyy’s ratings have started to increase again in 2025 thanks to a second rally-around-the-flag situation. The numbers had begun to improve anyway, but after representatives of the U.S. government spread misinformation about Zelenskyy’s popularity and disrespected him during a meeting at the White House, the numbers rose more quickly. Trust went from an average of 54% in January to a high of 69% in late March, and approval went from 63% to 72% in the same time period.
Other presidents and politicians
Ukrainian presidents famously always have a sharp drop in ratings, so it is worth looking at how Zelenskyy’s standings compare. “Word and Deed” has done several analyses of presidential ratings. In May 2020, they compared the level of support after one year in office, and in October 2021, they compared changes in trust and support.
In both cases, it shows that significant decreases in ratings is a normal occurrence for Ukrainian presidents. Regardless of the decline, as Onuch noted, “Zelensky’s approval ratings remained higher than those of his predecessors at comparable points in their presidential tenures, including Yushchenko’s roughly 5 percent and Poroshenko’s ballpark 15 percent.” A visual comparison of Zelenskyy’s trust ratings with Poroshenko’s paints a clear picture as well.
As already mentioned, even when Zelenskyy’s ratings were low, they were often better than all others on a particular list. Especially in this context, he has maintained a relatively high level of popularity throughout his political career. In February 2022, the Rating Group showed that, since the 2019 election, his support always remained greater than other politicians despite some ups and downs.
The verdict
Was Zelenskyy ever very unpopular?
My original answer to this question was “It depends on how you look at it.” While he has had objectively low numbers at times, he seems to have the ability to garner such an overabundance of support that he can afford to lose much of it, and then gain it back later. The ups and downs are steep, but he starts out so far above everyone that a low point for him is a major achievement for someone else. So he certainly has had periods of much less popularity, but usually only when compared to himself.
With all of that in mind, my answer changes to a definitive “No, he’s never been unpopular.” Nor is he now, and it’s more than just Ukrainians who feel that way; Zelenskyy is currently in first place on YouGov’s list of Foreign Politicians. Controversial — yes. Disappointing — for some, yes. Though he is in no way universally loved, Zelenskyy has been one of the most highly-rated and record-breaking Ukrainian politicians since the country’s independence.
A note about elections:
There has recently been increased pressure from Russian-influenced U.S. government representatives for Ukraine to hold elections. It’s a veiled and clumsy attempt at trying to remove Zelenskyy from leadership, since they know he is unlikely to be pressured into concessions that are detrimental to Ukraine. There have also been reports that the U.S. tried to have secret talks with Ukrainian opposition leaders, namely Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Clearly, these people have not looked at any real sociology research, because they would know that neither politician has much trust or support in Ukrainian society. In fact, if we look at cumulative average electoral support since the 2019 presidential election, Zelenskyy is once again the frontrunner among all potential candidates. No amount of Russian propaganda is going to change that reality.
