Fact or Fiction: "Zelenskyy Didn't Believe There Would Be a Full-Scale Invasion"
What exactly did he know and when?
Even Zelenskyy’s staunch supporters will repeat the claim that he didn’t believe there would be a full-scale invasion or that he ignored US warnings. It’s true that this narrative has been heavily featured in US reports about the lead up to Russia’s February 2022 attacks. However, there is always more than one side to a story.
Early threats
In 2021, from September 9-16, Russia and Belarus took part in “military exercises” which involved at least 200,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. On September 25, then Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny reported that the Russian troops did not leave their positions near the Ukrainian border after the end of their scheduled exercises. At the end of October, The Washington Post reported on the further transfer of Russian troops to the Ukrainian border.
CIA Director Bill Burns spoke to Zelenskyy by phone in early November to discuss recent US efforts “to de-escalate growing tensions between Moscow and [Kyiv].” Zelenskyy also met with Secretary of State Blinken while at the COP26 Conference in Glasgow and received an intelligence briefing. Several weeks later, then Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov stated during an interview that Ukrainian intelligence regarding the possibility of Russian attack was “consistent” with Western estimates and that “there are signs of escalation.” Head of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov agreed that “Russia is preparing for a possible attack on the east and south of Ukraine in January-February 2022.” He added that this “would first follow a series of psychological operations currently underway designed to destabilize Ukraine and undermine its ability to fight.” Russian spokesman Dmitri Peskov refuted the claim and suggested “that it is Kyiv that wants to start military operations.”
At a press conference in late November, Zelenskyy stated multiple times that escalation from Russia was possible at “any moment,” as it had been for the past 8 years of war. He said that they received regular intelligence reports and were prepared. He warned that Russia was looking for a provocation from the Ukrainian side and declared that they would continue with diplomatic talks as a way to prevent escalation. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in early December that they were not sure yet whether Putin had made a final decision to attack.
Zelenskyy and Biden had a phone call on January 2, during which Biden voiced support for “active diplomacy to advance the implementation of the Minsk Agreements.” Meanwhile, Russia was still denying any intention of attacking Ukraine. In mid-January, Burns met with Zelenskyy to give him more detailed intelligence, in particular about threats to Zelenskyy’s life. Burns later said that he was “very impressed” by Zelenskyy and understood not wanting to “spark an economic or political panic in Ukraine” or take actions “that Putin could then seize upon as evidence of provocation.” He said that Zelenskyy took the news “quite seriously.”
Trying to avoid chaos
At a meeting with Blinken, Zelenskyy discussed modernizing the army to improve “their ability to resist aggression” and “the need to impose preventative sanctions” on Russia. Zelenskyy implored Ukrainians not to panic about rumors of imminent war. He explained that widespread anxiety would negatively affect the economy and weaken any resistance, and that defense was a priority. “We are aware of everything, we are ready for everything, but we are doing everything so that we do not need it in the end. We are doing everything to resolve the issue diplomatically,” he said, before elaborating on his optimism about the year ahead.
In an interview with The Washington Post, Zelenskyy criticized Western partners for raising alarms about an invasion but not imposing preventative sanctions. He predicted that if Russia attempted to occupy major Ukrainian cities, it would result in a large-scale war with “hundreds of thousands” of lost lives and a migration crisis in Europe. He confirmed that the US had increased military support but that it was still insufficient. “I think no president of Ukraine was ready to have a war with Russia,” he said. “But we are nevertheless ready.” Over the next few days, Zelenskyy continued to insist that the Ukrainian authorities were aware of the situation on the border and working both diplomatically and militarily. He also addressed the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and worries about an energy shortage, saying that there were “many attempts to cause a crisis” but that they would “defeat all attempts at destabilization.”
On January 28, Zelenskyy gave a press conference for foreign journalists. He assured that they were preparing “for any scenario” but that details of military plans should be kept quiet. He once again commented on the lack of preventative sanctions. “If it is true, as everyone says, that tomorrow there will be a full-scale war, why do we need sanctions afterwards?”
Zelenskyy said that he didn’t think that the White House was wrong in their analysis, though their public statements were not helpful. He acknowledged that war “may happen” but it was necessary to be careful about saying definitively that “there will be war tomorrow.” He explained that these signals from other countries were causing “panic in the financial sector” and undermining the economy, costing the state billions of dollars. He argued that the army had “as much as possible, as far as the economy of our country allows” and that a stronger economy would enable them to better support the military. White House press secretary Jen Psaki later conceded that they still didn’t know whether Putin had decided to invade and that the word “imminent” may have sent an “unintended message” about the timeline of a possible attack.
In mid-February, Zelenskyy answered some questions while on a working trip to Kherson. He was overseeing military exercises which he said were necessary because any offensive would begin with “destabilization within the state.” He said they had plans for all scenarios and that they were aware of the risks, though there was a lot of different information about a potential full-scale war. He reiterated that they were committed to a diplomatic path, but said in English, “The best friend for enemies – that is panic in our country. All this information that helps only for panic doesn’t help us.”
On February 13, Biden had a call with Zelenskyy. US officials warned again of a possible Russian invasion but clarified that it was still not a certainty. The next day, Zelenskyy repeated that they understood the risks and were “constantly monitoring the situation, working out different scenarios, preparing decent responses to all possible aggressive actions.” He said that, though they wanted to resolve “all issues exclusively through negotiations” they were ready to fight for freedom if necessary. Matthew Miller, a US National Security Council advisor, would later recall this period of time and say that he wasn’t sure whether Zelenskyy was truly doubtful of the intelligence or if he was trying “to keep his economy from crumbling and a refugee crisis from happening. […] For all the skepticism that the Ukrainians weren’t doing enough to prepare in advance, I think the early days of the war disproved that idea.”
A few days later, a senior White House official reported that “thousands” of additional Russian troops had recently arrived at the border and warned that Russia could use “a false pretext” to invade. During an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Zelenskyy said that they didn’t want to give Russia any extra reasons for provocation and spoke about how the talk of various invasion dates led to “constant panic in society,” which made it impossible to raise salaries for military, doctors, and teachers. On February 18, Russia began evacuating civilians from occupied regions of Donbas while trying to indicate that Ukraine was the aggressor. Biden announced that he was now “convinced” that Putin had decided to invade and attack Kyiv within days.
At the Munich Security Conference on February 19, Zelenskyy addressed the lack of security guarantees and preventative sanctions, saying, “We will defend our land with or without the support of partners. [...] To really help Ukraine, it is not necessary to constantly talk only about the dates of the probable invasion. We will defend our land on February 16, March 1, and December 31. We need other dates much more. And everyone understands perfectly well which ones.” The US, however, maintained the idea that the threat of sanctions could still change Putin’s mind about attacking. Blinken said during an interview that they would continue using diplomacy “until the tanks are actually rolling.”
In response to Russia’s official recognition of the illegal separatist republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, Zelenskyy stated that “Ukraine must respond to this by defending its sovereignty and state,” and though he didn’t see a reason yet to declare martial law, he assured it would happen in the event of a large-scale offensive. On the eve of the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian parliament, as decreed by Zelenskyy, declared a state of emergency. Zelenskyy tried speaking directly to Russian citizens, telling them that Ukrainians “do not need war” but “if troops come at us, if they try to take away our country, our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children, we will defend ourselves. Not to attack, to defend ourselves. When attacking, you will see our faces. Not our backs, but our faces.”
Later revelations
In March 2022, Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the NSDC, said that they had begun preparing for an invasion in November 2021. He defended the choice not to tell the public because “it was one of the tactics of the Russian Federation to cause chaos” in Ukraine. In May, during an interview with the Dutch program Nieuwsuur, Zelenskyy said that the country had long been preparing for an invasion and that “the Ukrainian army was ready for an attack” but he didn’t want to “create unnecessary panic.” In June, Biden claimed that Zelenskyy “didn’t want to hear” warnings about an invasion. Zelenskyy’s press secretary responded by pointing out that Biden and Zelenskyy had been in direct contact multiple times in the lead-up to the full-scale war, and Zelenskyy’s requests for preventative sanctions had been ignored.
During an interview with The Washington Post in August 2022, Zelenskyy elaborated that “preventive sanctions mean to do something to make the Russians afraid to attack — because they will attack, so do something about it.” He said that Ukrainian officials believed there would be an invasion, but if they had announced it to the public, they would have lost billions of dollars and the Russians “would have taken us in three days.” He discussed his attempt to deal with a hybrid war: “[The Russians] did this so we would stop being a country, and by the time of their invasion, we would have been a rag, not a country. That’s what they were betting on. We did not go for it. [...] I had the feeling that [they] wanted to prepare us for a soft surrender of the country.”
The verdict
Did Biden have to convince Zelenskyy that there would be a full-scale invasion?
No, it seems clear that Biden didn’t convince Zelenskyy of anything. He was already well-aware of the danger from Russia, especially since Ukrainians had been dealing with Russian aggression for the past 8 years. He knew that Russia was eager to take advantage of any opportunity to destabilize the country so that they could, as some assumed, take Kyiv in three days. He also knew that obvious military preparation would give Russia more of an excuse to attack, and that widespread panic would seriously threaten Ukraine’s ability to resist. Zelenskyy interpreted the available intelligence based on these factors and made the decision to project a cautious but optimistic outlook. He was trying to keep his country united and pursue a diplomatic path for as long as possible.